Forecasting Without Wishful Thinking

Segments

• 00:00 — Why every manual forecast converges on optimism.
• 14:00 — The velocity model: how long deals actually sit in each stage, measured not vibes.
• 27:40 — Slippage history as the honest correction factor.
• 37:25 — Showing the gap early: a forecast that surprises you in week 12 already failed.

Key takeaways

• Forecast from observed velocity, not committed feelings.
• The gap to target is the product — surfacing it late makes it trivia.
• A good forecast changes behavior in week 3, not week 13.